Shannon Surging In New #OK2014 Senate Poll

Read the memo here, it was released this afternoon. 

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: OKLAHOMANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE FUTURE

FROM: GLEN BOLGER

RE: KEY FINDINGS – U.S. SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY

DATE: MARCH 18, 2014

Key Findings

1. T.W. Shannon has closed the ballot gap from 35 points to single digits over the last month.

In a February 9-11 survey of likely GOP primary voters, T.W. Shannon trailed James Lankford 16%-51%, with 2% for other candidates and 32% undecided.

Since then, the campaign has run an introductory positive ad, and then Oklahomans for a Conservative Future has also run a positive ad for the past two weeks. The TV advertising has been reinforced by direct mail.

The positive messaging has dramatically changed the status of the race. Shannon has knocked 26 net points off of Lankford’s lead. The deficit is now just 28%-37%, with 7% supporting new entrant Randy Brogdon, and 3% voting for one of four other candidates.

Lankford’s vote has dropped 14 points, while Shannon gained a dozen points. Underscoring the impact of messaging on behalf of Shannon, among primary voters who are favorable to the Tea Party, the ballot is now just a 32% Shannon/36% Lankford deficit.

2. Shannon’s favorables have skyrocketed, while Lankford’s image is unchanged. Shannon’s name ID has increased from 59% to 74% during that time frame. More importantly, his favorables have increased from 30% to 48% while his unfavorables are statistically unchanged, going from 4% to 5%.

Lankford remains well regarded by Republican primary voters, as his image is unchanged since the February poll. In February, Lankford had 79% name ID, with 56% favorable/5% unfavorable. His numbers are unchanged – 79% name ID, with 54% fav/6% unfav.

3. Sarah Palin’s endorsement is extremely helpful. Palin, who endorsed Shannon last week, has a strong image with the key target group. She has a 75% favorable/14% unfavorable image with Oklahoma GOP primary voters.

The Bottom Line

After starting the campaign as the equivalent of an NCAA Cinderella-wannabe, T.W. Shannon has become the momentum it takes to beat the number one seed, represented by James Lankford.

Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present Oklahomans for a Conservative Future with the key findings of a telephone survey of likely Republican primary voters conducted statewide in Oklahoma. The survey was completed March 16-17, 2014 among 500 likely GOP primary voters, including 100 interviews with cell phone respondents, and has a margin of error of +4.38 in 95 out of 100 cases.